The History That Might Have Been
[A paper presented at the 13th International
Conference on Land-Value Taxation
and Free Trade; Douglas, Isle of Man. September 1973]
The first concerns the state of industrial society today. For it was
with the industrial revolution that class divisions were extended; it
was the new working environment of factories which destroyed the
individual skills and work satisfaction of craftsmen, and the modern
conveyor belts which completed the process of alienation in the
workplace; it was the new machinery which redistributed incomes and in
the long run raised the level of wealth for most people.
One legacy from the industrial revolution is the strife on the
factory floor. Along with the steam-powered engine came the psychology
of the silent civil war -- the us-and-them conflict, which, except for
periods of national crisis, has run strong and deep through society
and regularly erupted on the surface with strikes and violence.
What sort of contemporary society would we be enjoying now had Henry
George written, say, a century earlier than he did, towards the end of
the 18th century?
2. Setting the Scene
The end of the 18th century saw the beginning of the great enclosures
and the end of any chance of a programme which safeguarded the dual
interests of private possession of land, justified on grounds of
economic efficiency and the public appropriation of economic rent,
justified on the historical ground that land had been a communal
possession from primeval times. The calls for land reform in this
period coincided with the French Revolution, from which the British
aristocracy was running scared. Anybody writing on the subject was
accused of sedition. Tom Paine went into exile in North America. The
radical reformer, Thomas Spence, a Newcastle schoolteacher, who
advocated that land rent be used to support the poor, maintain the
roads and encourage agriculture and other socially valuable purposes,
was arrested . But the social climate was not ready for this kind
of enlightened debate. Mingay comments on this period:
"Prudence was the counsel that prevailed ... in
fiscal matters. The protection of property was the overriding
consideration, and no-one knew where economical reform might end --
after all, a reassessment of the land tax, by now a very modest
burden, might prove to be its unforeseen and disastrous consequence."
The determination with which the isolated demands for land reform
were stamped out is not surprising, for society was dominated by an
aristocracy of about 300 families who controlled Parliament and relied
on their estates of 10,000 acres or more for incomes which varied
between £10,000 and £50,000 per annum. Under the pressure
of two wars between 1780 and 1815, which forced up the price of food,
Parliament passed 2,900 Enclosure Acts. This affected 600,000 acres,
or about 25 per cent of arable land. This completed the process,
extending back over many centuries, under which the common lands
-fertile and waste -- of the British Isles, came under the private
ownership of a small proportion of the population.
One of the main economic consequences of enclosure was to raise
productivity on the land; to this extent, then, it was to be
commended. But a further result was the creation of a new class of
citizens -- the landless peasants. This class was made up of the
smallholders and farm workers with their own plots of land who simply
could not afford the legal cost of pushing a private enclosure Bill
through Parliament, and then undertaking the cost of fencing the land.
Some were compensated, many were not, when their ancient right of
access to land was terminated.
One of the chief advocates of enclosure, Arthur Young, conceded: "By
nineteen out of twenty Enclosure Bills, the poor are injured and most
grossly". Subsequently, historians have differed on their
assessment of the social effects of the enclosures. The most famous
condemnation was by the Hammonds in The Village Labourer, who
saw it as an unmitigated disaster. Contemporary economic historians do
not take such a harsh view.
But of one thing we can be sure: the rental incomes of a relatively
small number of people were boosted enormously. We shall have to
consider what they did with this income and what impact the landlords1
attitudes had on the industrial revolution.
3. The Effects of Land-Value Taxation
At this stage, it would be useful to have before us a resume of the
effects of LVT on a chrysalis economy which was crawling out of its
soft clothing and into a new suit of metal, swopping the sun for
steam, fertiliser for fuel, social position for profit.
(a) Land would have been redistributed, from the few who controlled
the landed wealth -- three quarters of which was owned by the great
landlords and the gentry below them -- to the many more farmers and
peasants who could make economic use of it.
(b) Power vested in the aristocracy by virtue of their landed wealth
would have been undermined and redistributed to a larger number of
citizens, advancing democracy by decades.
(c) Income would have been redistributed and the poverty arising from
landlessness -- which resulted in the Speenhamland system under which
wages were supplemented according to the size of the family and the
price of bread -- would have been mitigated if not eliminated.
(d) The owners of factories and mines would have been forced to offer
higher wages and better working conditions to attract workers off the
land, instead of having a captive labour market of men whose wages
were often so pitiable that they had to send their children to work in
the most gruesome conditions.
(e) A rational attitude towards land use would have been imposed on
those great landowners who hitherto had been happy to leave land
uncultivated in order to encourage the conditions most conducive to
their sporting tastes, hawking and fox hunting. (f) The exchequer
coffers would have been swollen beyond the dreams of the most
voracious chancellors, and would have enabled Parliament to assess its
public role from the position of both material strength and heavy
(g) Since the citizens of Britain paid taxes out of earned income but
grudgingly, the Treasury became an institution to be resented and the
payment of taxes was seen as legalised robbery and a source of social
schism. LVT, if it had been accepted as normatively desirable, would
have re-emphasised that communal spirit without which our primitive
ancestors would not have banded together to advance their mutual
1 . Saving and Investment
No matter how ingenious the inventions which preceded it, the
industrial revolution would not have happened if entrepreneurial
skills had not been combined with the deployment of large resources to
create the machines and what is now called the social infrastructure
(which includes communications like roads). In this part we shall
consider how the private appropriation of rent proved to be a brake on
the process of industrialisation; in the next part, how LVT could have
acted like a catalytic agent, to both speed up the process and
influence the pattern of development.
Instead of diverting their rents into productive investments, many
landlords continued to indulge themselves in what is now called "conspicuous
consumption," but which Malthus perceptively labelled "unproductive
consumption": lavish living, the purchase of more homes, and so
on. Ward and Wilson write:
"For many landowners it would be dangerous to assume
that any large proportion of increased agricultural incomes found
their way directly into industry; in the late eighteenth century an
increased rental was often swallowed up by the constant extension of
the mansion, grounds and establishment which changes in contemporary
Furthermore, the new industrial middle class was also guilty of
diverting some of its profits into land. They were not motivated by
profit, for interest in invested capital in safe industrial stock
brought between 3-1/2 and 4-1/2 per cent, whereas a landowner would be
fortunate to get half of that from his investment. Nor was it
economic ignorance which stimulated this fashion, for it was the
bankers, who made the largest profits out of the early years of the
industrial revolution, who tied the most notoriously huge fortunes
into estates. The purchase of land, which effectively froze large sums
of savings, was the result of a quest for the social status which
could be bought with land.
There were other ways in which the structure of property rights in
land led to the diversion of savings which would otherwise have been
invested creatively in capital. Landowners, for instance, often had to
be bribed (or, to use David Spring's more sympathetic description,
paid "generous monetary compensation" by the companies
which wanted to build the great railway networks. Sutherland tells us
how the Great Western had to pay the Marquess of Ailesbury £5,000
for disturbing his peace at Tottenham, and he adds:
"There were many other landowners who managed to
sell their land for three or four times its agricultural value by
The aristocrats could line their pockets only because of their
monopoly control over that scarcest of economic factors, land.
A few enterprising landlords did make significant contributions to
industrialisation. Mineral deposits were exploited, canals dug, ports
built, banks started, markets opened. But they were in the minority,
and as the century wore on, even they retreated into the passive role
of the rentier.
But landlords could exercise more than just a negative influence
which retarded economic development -- they exercised positive power
to hinder change. This can best be illustrated by examining their
reaction to the railways, which was one of the "leading sectors"
in the process of industrialisation through its impact on other
spheres of activity, such as the growth of urban areas and commerce.
A railway could be built only if it received the sanction of
Parliament. And the great landlords, through their political influence
in Westminster, made sure that no private Bill could pass through
without endorsement from the owners of the land over which it was
proposed to build a railway. Many Bills were thwarted as a result.
Enormous pressure was at times brought to bear against a projected
railway: for such puffing monstrosities, beneficial though they might
be to the manufacturers who needed quick and cheap transportation to
sell their wares in new markets, were seen as a threat to the
tranquillity necessary for fox hunting. However, even the most
tradition-bound landowner began to realise how a railway sent the
rents on adjoining land soaring, and began to see the wisdom of having
those tracks over his land. As Jenks put it: "There was an
increment in land values along these railway lines which overbore the
prejudice originally entertained by country gentry."
Under LVT, the rise in land values arising from private capital
formation, would have gone to swell the exchequer rather than
financing the indulgences of a few.
3. Optimum Land Policies
Ideally, the agricultural sector of an economy which was diversifying
itself should contribute to the process by increasing productivity,
thus simultaneously releasing labour for the new manufacturing sectors
and producing more food for the workers who were no longer engaged in
The agricultural revolution of the 18th century saw significant
advances in technology. Rising prices at the turn of the century acted
as an incentive. But landowners shaped their policies towards their
tenant farmers according to criteria other than just profit. For
example, many of them would agree to short leases only. They could
re-acquire the land if they wished: and in return, they agreed to
receive lower rents. Statistics of rental income, as a consequence,
understate true market values. Farmers, for their part, were thereby
deterred from undertaking capital improvements on land over which they
had insecure legal title for the period necessary to recoup their
investments. The overall effect, then, was of a key sector of the
economy operating at a less than optimum level.
The market in land also began to reveal one of the most offensive
features of modern times: land standing idle while men failed to find
employment to feed their wives and children. When the Napoleonic war
came to an end in 1815, prices fell more rapidly than costs; deflation
coupled with bank failures ruined many farmers, who were consequently
forced off the land. Sutherland states: "Great tracts of newly
enclosed land went out of cultivation. In Norfolk, land to the value
of £1-1/2 million was up for sale and found no buyers." The
bottom had fallen out of the market in land. But the owners, rather
than reduce the price of land to a level which the hungry families
could afford - or give it away if there were no takers -- had
resources to protect them against the depression. They were therefore
under no pressure to part with the land over which they had acquired
LVT would have had a dual effect. First, it would have forced the
possessors to hand over the idle land to people who could make
productive use of it. Secondly, it would have tailored the price to
prevailing economic conditions, which means that in a depression the
price of land would come down.
1. The Statistical Magnitudes
We now come to a delicate part of our exploration, that of comparing
a few figures in order to grasp the implications of LVT. The figures
are rough approximations, and it is to be hoped that statisticians
will continue the laborious process of extending our knowledge in this
field. I have taken the years 1860 to 1870 simply because they are the
earliest dates for which comparative figures can be found; the figures
for earlier periods become even more speculative.
Table I : Government Expenditure and Rent 
*millions of pounds
Capital investment was around the £60m. mark in the 1840s, and
most of it was sunk into the railway system. Investment declined
in the next decade however, due to the high taxes resulting from the
needs of the Crimean war. Total government expenditure had remained
stable between £60m. and £70m. between the 1820s and 1850,
and then began a steep climb. Rent received (but excluding rent
enjoyed by owner occupiers) while rising in absolute amounts, declined
as a proportion of national income, from 15 per cent in 1860 to 13-1/2
per cent in 1870, a trend which has continued until after the Second
World War, when it was about 4 per cent of GNP, since when it has
slowly climbed a few percentage points.
The figures in Table I clearly show that until the mid-nineteenth
century at any rate, the return to land could finance state spending -
even where that expenditure included the cost of the terrible Crimean
war. The figures for rent include the returns to buildings on land,
and therefore have to be corrected. If one deducted one third from
these figures, we are still left with a rental income larger than
total government expenditure for those years, and we still have not
taken account of rents on owner occupied land.
But a straight comparison of these figures would not give us a true
picture, for we are trying to envisage an economy under a regime of
LVT. Adjustments are needed to take into account the following points.
(i) Investment would have been higher, and for two good reasons.
First, there would have been no need for customs and excise duties;
profits would therefore have been larger and the volume of trade
greater. Secondly, income tax would not have been a drain on wages
(the Crimean war cost nearly £70m., less than half of which was
met by borrowing, and brought income tax from 7d to the maximum of 1s
4d in the £ ; consequently, private savings would have been
(ii) The economic system which had been created by the middle of the
19th century gave rise to a permanent class of unemployed people who
were officially classed as paupers. In 1849, there were over two
million paupers. For the next three decades the figure was constant at
just over 1.8m. The figures in Table II include women and children,
the aged and the sick. The relief they received was paid for out of
rates raised by local authorities. But the poverty problem is
understated here; for private charities were spending tens of millions
of pounds annually in trying to alleviate suffering.
Table II : Paupers of all ages
||Public Poor Relief
||No. of Paupers
Under LVT, able-bodied men would not have suffered enforced idleness.
There would have been relatively full employment, national income
would have been higher, the number of paupers fewer, and there would
have been no rates to operate as a disincentive to capital investment
in buildings. Where the aged and infirm could not be supported by
their families, they could have been cared for out of government
revenue from land values. The support they received would have been
their equitable due, and not tainted by the stigma of charity.
(iii) The rental income in Table I almost certainly understates the
probable government revenue via a tax on land values. These were times
of exploding land values, particularly in urban areas. H.W. Singer,
writing in Econometrica (1941), estimates that urban land
values rose from £3m. in 1845 to £16.6m. in 1867 and to £30.1m.
in 1882. Sir James Caird, writing in 1877, estimated that the increase
in land values in the 1860s and 1870s as a result of urban development
and industry, was "£331 m. sterling in these twenty years,
at a cost (to the landed interest) which probably has not exceeded
(iv) With LVT providing a revenue larger than existing total
government expenditure, the surplus could have been devoted to a
number of areas of need. For instance, even with LVT, there seems
little doubt that the differential wages for agricultural workers -
higher in the north than in the south -- would have prevailed, simply
because most of the early benefits of industrialisation were
concentrated in the north; this gave agricultural workers alternative
forms of employment and helped to raise the wages of farm workers (or,
perhaps, helped to prevent them falling to the level of those in the
south, where most of the sporadic rioting of the first half of the
19th century was concentrated). Better roads could have been provided
and an elementary form of education introduced at an earlier date
(those schools which existed were provided for charitable or
paternalistic motives) which would have helped to make southern farm
workers mobile and so help to equalise wages. Water and sewage
facilities were also areas of potential improvement.
1. Henry George's Philosophy
Because he wrote in the latter half of the 19th century, Henry George
did not have the benefit of national income statistics to guide him.
Imprecise though these statistics may be, they do give us a good idea
of the magnitudes involved. And it is clear that, under LVT, a
government would be embarrassed by the riches pouring into its
coffers. Unless we want to assume that this wealth should be
squandered on, say, wars, we have to find a place in our philosophy
for a positive economic role for government.
Two possibilities arise. One is for the government to distribute the
surplus revenue to all citizens. But the actual sums involved per
person would have been small, given the size of the population --
equal to a matter of a few weeks' income. Would this have been wise?
Given that low-income earners have a high propensity to consume, this
social dividend would have been spent on extra items like clothing and
fuel and a few basic luxuries like tobacco. The second choice would
have been for a government to invest the capital sum on a socially
desirable project, aimed at either speeding up the industrial
revolution or alleviating some of the bad side effects of it.
I favour the second course of action. This view must be seen in the
context of a society imbued with a strong communal spirit, still
bonded together by the ancient tribal ties wherein the good of all was
crucial and which balanced the more ascetic aspects of the protestant
ethic. A wholly different social psychology would have pervaded the
community, and it would have influenced not only the public
decision-makers, but also the private entrepreneurs: they would have
seen that some of their actions were a travesty of justice - for
example, that indiscriminate pollution of the environment was to be
avoided by imposing an extra cost on the production process.
2. The Complacent Reviewers
The benefits of industrialisation have been staggering, the
revolution itself an inexorable development in the social organisation
of man. The enormity of what has transpired these past 150 years has
led some reviewers of modern history into a mood of complacency. The
case they use to illustrate their satisfaction with the industrial
revolution, that of Ireland, is fortunately one which poignantly
reveals the crucial defect in the history of the British Isles these
past two centuries - the failure to safeguard a dual interest in
property, of private ownership of wealth created by man, and public
ownership in the land. Dr. Rhodes Boyson seeks to draw a lesson from a
contrast between those who industrialise and those who do not:
"The population of Great Britain practically doubled
between 1800 and 1850. If England had remained rural and an
industrial she would not have been able to feed this increasing
population. Ireland remained rural; in the 1840s during a period of
bad harvests she lost one-fifth of her population by emigration and
starvation. England not only fed her own population in those years
but helped to solve Ireland's problems - 750,000 native-born Irish
lived in England in 1851 ."
A more insensitive assessment it would be difficult to imagine. Let
us examine the year 1848. About 300,000 people died because their
annual potato crop, which would have been worth £20m., failed
them. Yet in that year the agricultural produce in Ireland was worth £45m.
to the landlords. While all those human beings died, and many more
were forced by hunger to emigrate from their country, 1.8m. quarters
of wheat and barley were exported. Connolly records:
"Typhus fever, which always follows on the heels of
hunger, struck down as many as perished directly of famine, until at
last it became impossible in many districts to get sufficient
labourers with strength enough to dig separate graves for the dying."
Far from the Irish community not being able to feed their citizens,
the agricultural sector -- as Connolly observes -- could have
supported double the population. Those who were responsible for the
industrial revolution in England could take no credit for supporting
so many Irish men, because it was their values which directly
contributed to the deaths of millions and the scattering abroad of
many others. Gladstone's 1881 Land Act, which sought to shift some of
the benefits of land from owners to tenants, came too late.
3. Lessons for Less Developed Countries
Invaluable guidelines have now emerged for those countries which are
today struggling towards industrialisation, as a result of this
exercise in fitting historical facts on to economic theory.
LDCs are primarily agricultural. Because of political expediency,
many of them are introducing programmes of "land reform."
Very often these are illusory, merely skilful attempts at thwarting
real change in the land ownership system based on the western model
and they are therefore repeating precisely those ill-effects
experienced by Britain in the past two centuries. In other cases,
genuine attempts at redistributing land to the peasants lack the
safeguard of public ownership of rent.
The United Nations has failed to break away from the now orthodox
approach to land rights; and in formulating proposals for land reform,
has reinforced the trend which is simply creating a larger class of
private owners, peasants though they may originally have been.
Allied to this approach in the traditional sector is the strong
desire by governments of most LDCs to industrialise their economies.
The impetus for the new industrial sector often comes primarily from
foreign investment by multinational companies, and from foreign aid.
As a result, huge slices of scarce indigenous resources -- mainly
skilled labour -- are diverted into the modern sector, when they could
have been more rewardingly used in the agricultural sector. And often
loans have to be obtained from world agencies and benevolent countries
to repay interest on original loans!
No LDC has yet seen the wisdom of structuring fiscal policies which
result in minimum disincentives on trade coupled with a bonanza income
from taxes on unearned income. The conclusion to which I am led is
that, if any government did implement LVT, it would have the effects
described in this paper, of speeding up industrialisation, where it
was warranted, and exploiting to an optimum level the existing natural
In their present approach, however, LDCs are cultivating the
psychology of strife. They are systematically replacing ancient
communal rights with the socially divisive western property rights
which have created the dual society of "us" and "them."
For many people, perhaps the majority of the world's population, there
is still hope; we now have the knowledge, but it will take acts of
political courage to challenge conventional wisdom and strike out on a
REFERENCES AND NOTES
- See G.E.Mingay, English
Landed Society in the Eighteenth Century, Routledge &
Kegan Paul, 1963, Ch. XI.
- Op cit., p 262.
- J.F.C.Harrison, The Early
Victorians 1832-51, Panther 1973, p 116.
- John Addy, The Agrarian
Revolution, Longman 1972, p 26.
- Quoted by Douglas Sutherland
in The Landowners, Anthony Blond, 1968, p 21.
- Sutherland, op cit, p 15.
- J.T.Ward & R.G.Wilson,
editors, Land and Industry, David & Charles, 1971, p
- Sutherland, op cit, p 31.
- Ward and Wilson, op cit,
- Leland H. Jenks, The
Migration of British Capital to 1875, Nelson 1971, p128.
- Government expenditure figures
are from A.T.Peacock and J. Wiseman, The Growth of Public
Expenditure in the United Kingdom, Princeton, 1961. Rent and
investment figures are taken from C,H. Feinstein in The
Distribution of National Income (editors: Jean Marchal and
Bernard Ducros), Macmillan, 1968, p 116.
- Jenks, op cit, p 126.
- Henry Roseveare, The
Treasury, Alien Lane, 1969, p 190.
- C.G.Hanson, in The Long
Debate on Poverty, Institute of Economic Affairs, 1972, p 117.
- Quoted in Ward and Wilson, p
- See, e.g., T.S.Ashton, The
Industrial Revolution 1760-1830, Oxford University Press, 1957
- I. E. A. 's The Long Debate, p
- James Connolly, Labour in
Ireland, Ch.13, Irish TGWU, 1944.