Cities of Empty Nesters:
A Reaction To Rational Expectations

Edward J. Dodson

[An unpublished essay, March, 2005]

We should not be surprised by a demographic trend reported on by the New York Times ("Vibrant Cities Find One Thing Missing: Children," Timothy Egan, New York Times, March 24, 2005). With the median price of housing in many urban centers climbing well about $200,000, working families who are not already homeowners are priced out of the market. Households that rent housing are finding it more and more difficult to stay in houses or apartments as rents escalate and incomes do not. As Timothy Egan wrote:

"Central cities are revitalizing through the construction of new high-density homes, fashionable restaurant and shops, and businesses that reflect the tastes of the locals. However, the atmosphere is not attracting families who want affordable housing and more space for children.

For example:

• From 1990 to 2003, Portland, Oregon grew by 90,000 people, but it is now educating fewer students than in the previous 80 years; as a result, the city will close several schools over the next decade.
• San Francisco, where children under age 18 comprise only 14.5 percent of the inhabitants, has the lowest percentage of children in any major city - no surprise considering the median housing price is $700,000.
• In Seattle, which ranks second among large cities with the lowest percentage of children, dogs actually outnumber children.

The falling birthrate nationwide has contributed to the problem as well. Indeed, North Dakota is losing more children than any other state. However, mayors are worried that the decline in children will diminish the overall quality and diversity of their cities and reduce the human capital needed to support an aging population."

Should anyone be surprised that more and more people are making life choices based on economic realities?

The response by most city mayors and councils is predictable: find the funds to subsidize the construction of affordable housing units. Cities would love for the state governments or the Federal government to send them grant monies for this purpose, so they do not have to increase taxes or issue bonds. As we know, the solution is in their hands, if they can only find their way to see clearly to changing the way they raise revenue.